Welcome to My EXCELent Blog! (Too soon? Too soon.)

Yesterday I picked the wrong lane at the grocery checkout.  I know, not earthshaking news.  Actually, not news at all since I have never picked the right lane.  At least thats how it feels.  Picking the right lane would be news.  Perhaps still not "earthshaking."

Wrong line calculation:
10 (years of shopping for myself) * 52 (weeks/year) * 1 (weekly shopping trip) = 520 trips

But my wife has done the grocery shopping without me many times:
6 (yr when trips fit her schedule better) * 52 (wk/yr) * 1 (trip/wk) * 80% (I couldn't go) = - 250 trips

But we shop for things other than groceries where we pick a line:
10 (years of shopping) * 52 (wk/yr) * 0.5 (trip/wk) = 260 trips

And I'm pretty good at convincing my wife to let me drive the cart:
520 - 250 + 260 = 530 trips
530 (trips) * 85% (of the time I pick the checkout lane) =
~450 times my wife could have leaned over and whispered, "You have chosen... poorly."

Right line calculation:
= 0

Compare that to the 150-200 earthquakes that have been "feel-able" in the northwest in that time and [insert "earthshaking" joke here].

We get a lot of sensory stuff thrown at us every day that makes us feel a certain way, and (at least for me) make us ask questions.  The nice thing about most questions, though, is that there is usually some data you can scrounge up and throw into an excel model. Five minutes (or an hour or a week) later you have an answer.  It might not be [omit "earthshaking" joke here], but it might inform you about why you felt what you did.  Do I really pick the wrong line more often than the northwest gets earthquakes? Maybe.  Does that validate how I feel about it?  Definitely.

So yeah.  Thats what this blog is about.  When my fish have babies and I worry that they will overrun the tank (and the world?) I model it in Excel.  When talking heads say they you can beat the market by "timing momentum," I model it in Excel.  When I worry about retirement, housing, or why exponents act so crazy, I model it in Excel.  When I worry about the debt to GDP ratio I DO NOT MODEL IT IN EXCEL.  (Actually, I probably do.)

I hope you enjoy the blog.  I know the in-text numbers are boring, and I'll be working on combining Excel screenshots with google-drive interactivity to minimize clutter.